TROPICAL CYCLONE BULLETIN NR. 10
Severe Tropical Storm #LeonPH (KONG-REY)
Issued at 5:00 AM, 29 October 2024
Valid for broadcast until the next bulletin at 11:00 AM today.
“LEON” SLIGHTLY INTENSIFIES AND IS NEARING TYPHOON CATEGORY
Location of Center (4:00 AM): The center of Severe Tropical Storm LEON was estimated based on all available data at 645 km East of Tuguegarao City, Cagayan (17.3°N, 127.8°E)
Intensity: Maximum sustained winds of 110 km/h near the center, gustiness of up to 135 km/h, and central pressure of 975 hPa
Present Movement: West northwestward at 10 km/h
Extent of Tropical Cyclone Winds: Strong to storm-force winds extend outwards up to 640 km from the center
TROPICAL CYCLONE WIND SIGNALS (TCWS) IN EFFECT
TCWS No. 1
Wind threat: Strong winds
Luzon
Batanes, Cagayan including Babuyan Islands, Isabela, Quirino, Nueva Vizcaya, Apayao, Kalinga, Abra, Mountain Province, Ifugao, Benguet, Ilocos Norte, Ilocos Sur, La Union, Aurora, the northern portion of #Quezon including Polillo Islands (General Nakar, Infanta, Real), Camarines Norte, the eastern portion of Camarines Sur (Tinambac, Siruma, Goa, Lagonoy, San Jose, Garchitorena, Caramoan, Presentacion, Tigaon, Calabanga, Saglay), Catanduanes, the eastern portion of Albay (Rapu-Rapu, Bacacay, City of Tabaco, Tiwi, Malilipot, Malinao, Santo Domingo, Manito), and the northeastern portion of Sorsogon (Prieto Diaz, City of Sorsogon, Gubat)
Visayas
The eastern portion of Northern Samar (San Roque, Pambujan, Catubig, Laoang, Palapag, Gamay, Lapinig, Mapanas, Mondragon) and the northern portion of Eastern Samar (Jipapad, Arteche, Oras, San Policarpo)
Warning lead time: 36 hours
Range of wind speeds: 39 to 61 km/h (Beaufort 6 to 7)
Potential impacts of winds: Minimal to minor threat to life and property
OTHER HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND AREAS
Heavy Rainfall Outlook
Refer to Weather Advisory No. 4 issued at 5:00 AM today for the Heavy Rainfall Outlook associated with Severe Tropical Storm LEON.
Severe Winds
The wind signals warn the public of the general wind threat over an area due to the tropical cyclone. Local winds may be slightly stronger/enhanced in coastal and upland/mountainous areas exposed to winds. Winds are less strong in areas sheltered from the prevailing wind direction.
• Minimal to minor impacts from strong winds are possible within any of the areas under Wind Signal No. 1.
The highest Wind Signal which may be hoisted during the occurrence of LEON is Wind Signal No. 3 or 4, especially in Extreme Northern Luzon. The hoisting of Wind Signal No. 5 is also not ruled out.
Furthermore, the wind flow coming towards the circulation of Severe Tropical Storm LEON will also bring gusty conditions (strong to gale-force) over the following localities (especially in coastal and upland areas exposed to winds) outside Wind Signal areas:
• Today (29 October): Bataan, Metro Manila, #CALABARZON, MIMAROPA, Bicol Region, Visayas, Dinagat Islands, Surigao del Norte, and Camiguin.
• Tomorrow (30 October): Bataan, Metro Manila, #CALABARZON, MIMAROPA, Bicol Region, most of Visayas, and Dinagat Islands.
• Thursday (31 October): Aurora, #Quezon, MIMAROPA, Bicol Region, Dinagat Islands, and Bicol Region.
HAZARDS AFFECTING COASTAL WATERS
A Gale Warning is hoisted over the seaboard of Northern Luzon and the eastern seaboards of Central and Southern Luzon. For more information, refer to Gale Warning No. 2 issued at 5:00 AM today.
24-Hour Sea Condition Forecast
Up to high seas:
• Up to 8.0 m: The northeastern seaboard of mainland Cagayan.
• Up to 7.0 m: The seaboards of Batanes and the remaining seaboards of Cagayan.
• Up to 6.0 m: The seaboards of Isabela.
• Sea travel is risky for all types or tonnage of vessels. All mariners must remain in port or, if underway, seek shelter or safe harbor as soon as possible until winds and waves subside.
Up to very rough seas:
• Up to 4.5 m: The seaboards Ilocos Norte, Aurora, and Camarines Norte; the northern and eastern seaboards of Polillo Islands, Camarines Sur and Catanduanes; the seaboard of northern Quezon.
• Sea travel is risky all types or tonnage of vessels. All mariners must remain in port or, if underway, seek shelter or safe harbor as soon as possible until winds and waves subside.
Up to rough seas:
• Up to 3.0 m: The remaining seaboard Quezon; the seaboard of Ilocos Sur; the eastern seaboards of Albay and Sorsogon; the northern and eastern seaboards of Northern Samar; and the eastern seaboard of Eastern Samar.
• Mariners of small seacrafts, including all types of motorbancas, are advised not to venture out to sea under these conditions, especially if inexperienced or operating ill-equipped vessels.
Up to moderate seas:
• Up to 2.5 m: The seaboards of La Union, Pangasinan, Dinagat Islands, Surigao del Norte, Suriago del Sur, and Davao Oriental.
• Up to 2.0 m: The remaining seaboards Luzon and Visayas, and the northern seaboard of Mindanao.
• Mariners of motorbancas and similarly-sized vessels are advised to take precautionary measures while venturing out to sea and, if possible, avoid navigation under these conditions.
TRACK AND INTENSITY OUTLOOK
• LEON is forecast to move generally west northwestward today, then turn northwestward tomorrow until it makes landfall along the eastern coast of Taiwan on Thursday (31 October) afternoon or evening. After crossing the landmass of Taiwan, LEON will then turn to the northward to north northeastward towards the East China Sea and exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility on Thursday evening or early Friday morning (1 November).
• There is an increasing possibility of further westward shift in the track forecast of LEON but within the limits of the forecast confidence cone. As such, a landfall or close approach scenario on Batanes is not ruled out.
• This tropical cyclone is expected to rapidly intensify throughout its passage over the Philippine Sea and may reach typhoon category within the next 12 hours. Furthermore, there is an increasing chance that LEON will reach super typhoon category during its period of closest approach to Batanes.
Considering these developments, the public and disaster risk reduction and management offices concerned are advised to take all necessary measures to protect life and property. Persons living in areas identified to be highly or very highly susceptible to these hazards are advised to follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. For heavy rainfall warnings, thunderstorm/rainfall advisories, and other severe weather information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your local PAGASA Regional Services Division.
The next tropical cyclone bulletin will be issued at 11:00 AM today.
DOST-PAGASA
Link: tinyurl.com/tcleon
